The annual exercise in futility known as "Predicting the Academy Award winners" 2008 style, begins herewith, with my predictions plus those I'd actually like to see win. And weirdly, in some categories those even jibe for once!
Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis. Don't think this will even be close, but I've been wrong on that before. Mortensen was sublime in "Eastern" and Jones' understated performance, in a much less showy role, in "Elah" was surprisingly moving. Clooney held sway throughout as the titular character. But once again, Day-Lewis is in a league of his own.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal)
Julie Christie in "Away from Her" (Lionsgate)
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in "Juno" (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production)
Who will win: Julie Christie
Who should win: I'd be thrilled for Christie, but loved Page and Linney too. (Dark Horse: Most people would say Cotillard would count as a dark horse with a legit shot here, but I wouldn't rule out Page. She gave the performance everyone loved and talked about. Stranger things have happened.)
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.)
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War" (Universal)
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Who will win: Bardem.
Who should win: Bardem. Affleck did nice work, too, and Holbrook shined in a small part. Wilkinson was terrific. Hoffman is always super. But, really, which performance will you never ever forget?
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" (The Weinstein Company)
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster" (Universal)
Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax)
Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Who will win: Tilda Swinton
Who should win: can't argue against Swinton here, though I though Ronan's was one of the better performances seen by a young actress in a long while, and Ryan is always underrated. Blanchett is brave and wonderful, but has already won recently. Dee always leaves an impression but really only had one scene to shine.
Best animated feature film of the year
"Persepolis" (Sony Pictures Classics): Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Brad Bird
"Surf's Up" (Sony Pictures Releasing): Ash Brannon and Chris Buck
Who will win: Ratatouille, in another win for Pixar
Who should win: Ratatouille or Persepolis. They could not be more different in style, but both superbly succeed at what they set out to do, beautifully.
Achievement in art direction
"American Gangster" (Universal): Art Direction: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
"Atonement" (Focus Features): Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
"The Golden Compass" (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners): Art Direction: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount): Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
Who will win: Sweeney Todd
Who should win: There Will Be Blood. The former is more showy for art direction, but Fisk and Erickson's work on the latter should not be overlooked. All that said, Atonement might beat out Sweeney Todd.
Achievement in cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.): Roger Deakins
"Atonement" (Focus Features): Seamus McGarvey
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn): Janusz Kaminski
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Roger Deakins
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Robert Elswit
Who will win: No Country for Old Men
Who should win: Assassination of Jesse James. Hey, either way, Deakins wins. Can't argue against the DP work for any of these nominees, really. All superb.
Achievement in costume design
"Across the Universe" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
"Atonement" (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
"La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse) Marit Allen
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood
Who will win: Atonement
Who should win: Sweeney Todd
Best documentary feature
"No End in Sight" (Magnolia Pictures) A Representational Pictures Production: Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
"Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience" (The Documentary Group) A Documentary Group Production: Richard E. Robbins
"Sicko" (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company) A Dog Eat Dog Films Production: Michael Moore and Meghan O'Hara
"Taxi to the Dark Side" (THINKFilm) An X-Ray Production: Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
"War/Dance" (THINKFilm) A Shine Global and Fine Films Production: Andrea Nix Fine and Sean Fine
Who will win: This category is often unpredictable, too, but I don't see Moore winning this one again. I'd bet on No End in Sight or War/Dance if I had to bet.
Who should win: Taxi to the Dark Side
Where the heck is: King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters (probably didn't compute for more traditional Oscar voters).
Best documentary short subject
"Freeheld" A Lieutenant Films Production: Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
"La Corona (The Crown)" A Runaway Films and Vega Films Production: Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
"Salim Baba" A Ropa Vieja Films and Paradox Smoke Production: Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
"Sari's Mother" (Cinema Guild) A Daylight Factory Production: James Longley
Who will win: Beats me, but I'll guess Longley's "Sari's Mother."
Who should win: Freeheld sounds emotionally devestating, Salim Baba perhaps the most fascinating.
Achievement in film editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal): Christopher Rouse
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn): Juliette Welfling
"Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment): Jay Cassidy
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Dylan Tichenor
Who will win: No Country for Old Men.
Who should win: No Country for Old Men. Not always an easy category to pick, and you could argue for any of these films (including the film I thought got most overlooked at the Oscars, Into the Wild.) But Jaynes' work (with the Coens) was supreme.
Best foreign language film of the year
"Beaufort" Israel
"The Counterfeiters" Austria
"Katyn" Poland
"Mongol" Kazakhstan
"12" Russia
Who will win: This is just a complete guess, but I'm going to pick Katyn based on the Academy's love of WWII stories and Andrzej Wajda's storied history. He's already been given an honorary nomination to make up for previous skips, but that wouldn't eliminate him from getting a real one now. Or, given the Academy's love of WWII stories, The Counterfeiters sounds up the typical foreign film voter's alley.
Who Should win: Having not seen any of these films it's hard for me to say, and this category is often the most surprising (and/or ludicrous), but "12" sounds the most interesting to me.
Achievement in makeup
"La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
"Norbit" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount): Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Walt Disney): Ve Neill and Martin Samuel
Who will win/Who Should win: La Vie en Rose, just because the other two are among the worst films to get nominations in recent years. But I do love Rick Baker's work through his career, so I wouldn't feel awful if he won. On the other hand, it's Norbit! Must be a slow year for movie makeup.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
"Atonement" (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
"The Kite Runner" (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics): Alberto Iglesias
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.) James Newton Howard
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
"3:10 to Yuma" (Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami
Who will win: I'll probably be wrong but of the nominees I really like Beltrami's twangy score (with some occasional nods to Leone) the best, even though...
Who Should win: Johnny Greenwood for "There Will Be Blood" - and he wasn't even nominated!
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
"Falling Slowly" from "Once" (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and: Marketa Irglova
"Happy Working Song" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
"Raise It Up" from "August Rush" (Warner Bros.): Music and Lyric by Jamal Joseph, Charles Mack and Tevin Thomas
"So Close" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
"That's How You Know" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
Who will win: with three of the noms, likely a song from Enchanted, unless they all cancel each other out.
Who Should win: "Falling Slowly" from Once, a lovely song from a lovely film.
Best animated short film
"I Met the Walrus" A Kids & Explosions Production: Josh Raskin
"Madame Tutli-Putli" (National Film Board of Canada) A National Film Board of Canada Production Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
"Même les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)" (Premium Films) A BUF Compagnie Production Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
"My Love (Moya Lyubov)" (Channel One Russia) A Dago-Film Studio, Channel One Russia and Dentsu Tec Production Alexander Petrov
"Peter & the Wolf" (BreakThru Films) A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman
Who will win/Who Should win: Beats the heck out of me. Haven't seen any of them. But I'll go with the National Film Board's short because they never lead me astray.
Best live action short film
"At Night" A Zentropa Entertainments 10 Production: Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
"Il Supplente (The Substitute)" (Sky Cinema Italia) A Frame by Frame Italia Production: Andrea Jublin
"Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)" (Premium Films) A Karé Production: Philippe Pollet-Villard
"Tanghi Argentini" (Premium Films) An Another Dimension of an Idea Production: Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans
"The Tonto Woman" A Knucklehead, Little Mo and Rose Hackney Barber Production: Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown
Who will win/Who Should win: A wild stab at this one, "Le Mozart des Pickpockets" unless they're feeling in a Dogme sort of mood, in which case: "At Night"
Achievement in sound editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal): Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Skip Lievsay
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Christopher Scarabosio and Matthew Wood
"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins
Who will win: No Country for Old Men, if it's sweeping. Tough call.
Who Should win: No Country or There Will Be Blood. Or heck, Ratatouille. There, how's that for decisiveness!
Achievement in sound mixing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal) Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
"3:10 to Yuma" (Lionsgate): Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin
Who will win: No Country or Bourne.
Who Should win: 3:10 to Yuma.
Achievement in visual effects
"The Golden Compass" (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners): Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Walt Disney): John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier
Who will win: Transformers.
Who Should win: Golden Compass.
Adapted screenplay
"Atonement" (Focus Features), Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
"Away from Her" (Lionsgate), Written by Sarah Polley
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn), Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax), Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
Who will win: Coen Bros
Who should win: This is an incredibly deep category this year, it'd be hard to argue against any of the films winning it. If I had to pick someone other than the Coens, I'd actually take Sarah Polley for Away From Her. A perfect adaptation of the Munro short story. Certainly hard to dismiss Anderson's loose, creative adaptation of "Oil!" either, but as a script it stumbles a couple of times.
Original screenplay
"Juno" (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production), Written by Diablo Cody
"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM), Written by Nancy Oliver
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.), Written by Tony Gilroy
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Brad Bird; Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
"The Savages" (Fox Searchlight), Written by Tamara Jenkins
Who will win: Juno/Cody (I'm just guessing, since there's more buzz about it than any of the others)
Who should win: Michael Clayton/Gilroy or The Savages/Jenkins
Achievement in directing
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn), Julian Schnabel
"Juno" (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production), Jason Reitman
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.), Tony Gilroy
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax), Paul Thomas Anderson
Who will win: Coen Brothers
Who should win: Coen Brothers
This one seems a no-brainer to me, not to dismiss the others, certainly not the bravura work that Anderson did in his shattering film, but if the Coens don't win this I might need to, well, jump into the wood chipper.
Best motion picture of the year
"Atonement" (Focus Features) A Working Title Production: Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
"Juno" (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production) A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production: Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.) A Clayton Productions, LLC Production: Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production: Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production: JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers
Who will win: No Country for Old Men. BUT as a dark horse: (Just because it's a bit safer for stodgier or squeamish Academy voters) Atonement.
Who should win: No Country for Old Men.
Overall the nomination process ended up with a pretty accurate list of nominees, give or take, but again, I thought Into the Wild deserved more respect. Also overlooked: Eastern Promises, Zodiac, Rescue Dawn (no supporting actor nom for poor Steve Zahn probably upset him so much he went fleeing back to dreck like Strange Wilderness), and as mentioned in this space (and many others) the lack of a nomination for Four Months, 3 Weeks, Two Days... for Best Foreign film was certainly an oversight. Ah well.
What do you think?
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